The Wallet That Predicted 9 Military Events and Made $89K

A single Polymarket wallet correctly predicted nine separate military events and walked away with $89,427 in profit. Venezuela. Iran. Iraq. Anti cartel operations. Khamenei. All of them. Nine for nine.

The wallet goes by BulkeyBull. It was created in June 2025. It has 339 views on Polymarket. And its track record is one of the most remarkable things anyone has ever seen on a prediction market.

This isn't a story about luck. The data tells a much more interesting story than that.

The Record

Let's walk through the positions. Every single one resolved in BulkeyBull's favor.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28. Bought $18,050 worth of YES shares. Profit: $73,186. That's a 305% return on a single position.

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026. Bought at $4,859. Profit: $22,374. A 360% return.

US strikes Iraq by February 28. Bought $12,942. Profit: $24,557.

US military action against Iran by Saturday. Bought at $889. Profit: $9,347. Over 950% return.

US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026. Bought $2,787. Profit: $11,001. A 294% return.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31. Bought $15,711. Profit: $17,494.

US anti cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31. Bought $245. Profit: $1,630.

Maduro out by January 31, 2026. Bought $350. Profit: $1,505. A 330% return.

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Bought $1,268. Profit: $1,907.

Total invested: roughly $47,000. Total profit: $89,427. And the wallet's biggest single win was $55,100.

The Pattern

Here's what makes this wallet stand out from random gamblers who get lucky on one or two bets.

Category concentration. BulkeyBull only bets on geopolitical and military events. Zero sports. Zero crypto. Zero entertainment. This wallet has a thesis about the world and it trades that thesis exclusively.

Early entry. The wallet consistently entered positions before major price moves. On several of these markets, BulkeyBull was buying YES shares while the implied probability was still below 10%. By the time the news broke and everyone piled in, the position was already built.

Large sizing on high conviction bets. The Khamenei position was $18,000. The Israel/Iran position was nearly $5,000. These aren't throwaway bets. This is someone putting serious capital behind their analysis.

102 total predictions. This isn't a one trick wallet. Over a hundred positions means there's enough data to evaluate whether this is skill or variance. Nine for nine on military events specifically, out of 102 total trades, is statistically significant.

Insider or Analyst?

The obvious question: is this person trading on inside information?

The honest answer is that nobody knows for sure. The speculation ranges from military intelligence insider to extremely good OSINT analyst to someone with connections in government or defense circles.

Here's what the data can tell us. The timing of the entries suggests access to information or analysis that the broader market hadn't priced in yet. On multiple occasions, BulkeyBull bought into markets that the crowd was pricing at single digit probabilities, and those markets resolved YES within days or weeks.

But there's another possibility. If you're tracking the right signals, public information, satellite imagery, shipping data, military flight patterns, diplomatic schedules, you can sometimes get ahead of the crowd without any inside access at all. The OSINT community has gotten remarkably good at this.

The point isn't to settle the debate. The point is that this wallet's behavior was visible the entire time. Every trade was on chain. Every position was public. If you were watching the right wallets, you would have seen BulkeyBull loading up on Iran strike markets days before the rest of the world caught on.

What Happens Next

As of right now, BulkeyBull has two open positions. Both are bets on US forces entering Iran. One by March 31. One by December 31. Combined, those positions are worth over $34,000.

The March 31 position is currently showing YES at 25 cents. The December 31 position is at 42 cents. If the wallet's streak continues, those positions could be worth significantly more.

Whether you agree with the bet or not, the signal is clear: the wallet that went nine for nine on military events is telling you it thinks US forces will be in Iran before the end of the year. That's worth paying attention to.

The Bigger Picture

BulkeyBull is the most visible example of something happening across Polymarket every day. Wallets with real edge are making moves that the majority of traders never see. Not because the data is hidden, but because nobody is watching.

This is the entire thesis behind EdgeSignal. The data is public. Every wallet, every trade, every timestamp. The problem has never been access. It's been attention. Who's watching the wallets that matter? Who's scoring their trades based on historical accuracy? Who's flagging when a wallet with a 90% hit rate on military events suddenly opens a new position?

If you'd been tracking BulkeyBull before the Iran strikes, you'd have seen the signal forming in real time. The wallet was buying. The conviction was high. The category matched its specialty. That combination of factors is exactly what EdgeSignal's confidence scoring is built to surface.

The wallets are talking. Most people just aren't listening yet.